Everyone On Board or Perfect Storm?
What is driving us to the early primary, besides the good-natured desire to draw the national campaigns to state issues?
A big part of it is a redistricting proposal, which gets an amazing analysis from the California Progress Report.
But the real Crux of the Biscut is the adjustment of term limits. This adjustment would come just in time for Speaker Nunez and about 20 other termed out legislators. They are careful to avoid calling this an "extension" of term limits - pointing to the new 12 years, rather than the 14 years possible under the current limits.
Redistricting / Term Limits / Early Primary - three sides of a very viable political triangle. At first blush, this looks like a done deal. But is it?
Problem #1: What about Senate Pro Tem Don Perata? Would they have to give him 16 years under the proposal to earn his vote? Doesn't that kill the term limits proposal?
Problem #2: What about Congress? House Speaker Nancy Pelosi isn't going to want to gamble with Congressional Districts - and would Republicans in the legislature support a proposal that carved out the juicy congressional districts - allowing Demos to draw some protection for Pelosi?
Problem #3: Nunez is giving up the power of redistricting for the longshot chance to earn some extra terms. But the most likely result is that term-limits would fail, and redistricting would pass. He is gambling the ability of Freshmen legislators to draw lines in 2011, in hopes of giving himself an extension. The only real loser would be the legislators he would leave behind.
These problems suggest that the Speaker wouldn't have the Republican votes to get out a proposal that would be supported by the House Speaker and Califronia Congressional Delegation. Nor would it be possible for him to construct something that earns the suport of termed-out Senators without actually EXTENDING term limits. Even if he could construct something on redistricting, what happens when Freshman legislators realize that they're the only ones that can be the losers in the deal?
Note: One rumor has the legislature extending term limits for the Governor, which I presume would only come if he changed party registration.
1 comment:
Left-of-818 must be keeping the pulse of a different political body.
The Senate Pro Tem will sign off on a version that protects himself and doesn’t' hurt congress.
The Assembly Freshman are too scared to do anything that would buck the Speaker or his Chief of Staff.
And the voters are too stupid to tell the difference between real reform and its fake variety. Remember, these are the same folks who passed Measure R in Los Angeles, thereby approving a "strict" term limit that was strictly one more term than the old limits. They are also the ones that replaced real campaign finance reform of Prop. 208 with the fake Burton-written reform of Prop. 34.
So, mistakes one, two and three are underestimating the Senate, overestimating the Freshman, and thinking that the electorate knows diddly-squat.
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