The Speaker's Lead on Global Warming

One of Speaker Fabian Nunez' legacies will be AB 32 - a measure which imposed a cap on all greenhouse gas emissions, forcing California to cut pollutants by 25% by 2020.

Nunez has been lucky to lead on an issue that is growing in importance, and most importantly for a politician, growing in press coverage. The California move to lead the nation in environmental policy will be a key focus of Presidential contenders in 2008, and a February primary give a national stage to California's work on environmental protection.

But who is that woman in the background? I can't remember; and it seems the Speaker can't remember either.

Fran Pavley was the author of AB 32. Well, at least until the Speaker stepped in. She introduced the bill in December 2004 with co-authors Chan, Laird and Simitian. The bill had gone through three amendments and passed out of the Assembly adding Koretz and Chan as additional co-authors, still with the Speaker's authorship nowhere to be found. Finally, 18 months later, in April of 2006, the Speaker took over the legislation. It was clearly part of a deal to get it passed in exchange for pushing her into the background.

Pavley did the right thing to the bill passed with only a secondary concern about taking credit for the measure. But now the Speaker is flying around the world as a champion of environmental protection, while she is a termed-out member waiting for the chance to run against a member of Nunez' leadership team.

The Speaker owes Pavley, and should support her run for Senate. He has gained bucket-loads of media coverage and earned a legacy on the shoulders of this unassuming diligent and passionate legislator.

It reminds me of that old, demeaning saying: "behind every successful man is a good woman." Well, in this case, behind the Speaker is a former legislator who is waiting to find out if she will be left behind.

Silly Reporters Never Understand...

The Ventura Star News just published an article entitled "Will senators check out?" The question outlined is whether termed-out senators are really going to leave in 2008, or if a term-limits extension will shut the door on a handful of developing campaigns. Good question: Simple answer.

VSN Reporter Timm Herdt presumes that a term limits proposal being promoted by the Legislature would upend campaigns by Fran Pavley and Lloyd Levine who are looking to battle for a Valley to the Sea district in 2008. The concept is that a term-limits extension would allow Sheila Kuehl to continue her service in the State Senate - but maybe the reporter should read the fine print first. All of the proposals being floated by the Legislature would extend terms by allowing either 12 or 14 years in each house, or some combination of 12-14 years in either house (depending on the version). All of the versions would apply to current members, as you would imagine. But they ARE NOT retroactive. So, Sheila Kuehl, who has served 8 years in the Senate and 4 years in the Assembly (a total of 12 years already served), would be ineligible to run for re-election, even if the term-limits proposal were to be passed by the voters in time.

So the answer is simple: NO. Sheila Kuehl is termed out.

Even if the State Legislature pulls a Measure R trick and fools the public into supporting a term-limits extension, there will be competitive elections for Senate seats being vacated by Sheila Kuehl, Jack Scott and Ed Vincent. All three were first elected to the Assembly in 1996, served four years in the lower house, then served their eight years in the Senate.

What will change is this: Lloyd Levine won't run. He will have an additional four years to serve in the Assembly, and there's no reason for him to risk a run for Senate. The trickle-down is that Stuart Waldman and his host of opponents and blog-posting-player-haters would have to put it to rest for another four years.

LA Area Legislators Are Hot!?

Well, it may not be the Oscars, but today four Los Angeles Legislators took the honor of being called the most fashionable on The Land of The Fruits and Nuts blog.

Being one of those snarky blogger types, CaliforniaGrown has to take a jab at Freshman legislator Kevin DeLeon, comparing him to Eric Estrada, and he takes a swipe and Lloyd's lack of stuff uptop. Former and current Speakers Willie Brown and Fabian Nunez get away without any deriding comments.

But the longest part of the writeup is saved for Republican Cameron Smyth who gets the full treatment, from the colors he wears, how he pulls it off without being "showy" to the way he dresses outside of the office. Mr. Smyth: meet your new gay stalker.

Why put up with this crap?

Let's say you've been working for the Assembly for a dozen years. You've been in the community and you've been to Sacramento. You are actually in a position of respect and doing a good job.

I think there are lots of folks in that position that think "hey, I can do this!" One such case is Stuart Waldman, the longtime Valley staffer who is planning on running for the Assembly in 2008. If I were him I would get out now!!

My interactions with Stuart have been limited, but he has been around for a long time. He seems like a good Democratic activist type. He's got some heft compared to his current boss, being more akin to Hugsberg in personality and the cut of his jib.

Why cut and run? Because of idiots such as those at the Mayor Sam blog who say things like "Stuart...yuck" and call him a "greaseball." This is pervasive around the Valley when people talk about Stuart. People who have watched him put in the overtime hours for over a decade (both in his job and volunteering) are somehow resentful at the fact that he's now a frontrunner for the Assembly.

Let's face it. In 2002 he was supposed to run but got pushed out by two guys who weren't even from the district. Throughout the Valley (San Fernando and San Gabriel) there are plenty of examples of folks who never put in the time that Stuart has - yet people don't give them half the grief. So, Stuart, unless you've got some really thick skin (or a thick head, or both) get the hell out while you still can!!! You're a nice guy, but for some reason the net-roots have it out for you, and they're not going to get any nicer.

Nixonian, and not in a good way...

As POTUS prepares for tomorrow's SOTU, he better be practicing with a cute white bunny rabbit and a magical hat. His approval ratings going into the speech are the lowest for any president the day before a State of the Union speech since Richard Nixon in 1974.

Better late than never. Here are the numbers:

65% disapprove of how Bush is handling his job as president.

71% say the country is on the wrong track

28% approval rating

Richardson's Timing

In a move that has to baffle his supporters, Bill Richardson staked out a position as an "also ran" by making an "also announcement" today. By going in the shadow of Hillary, and with little obvious hook that the others have shown, he earned a two-paragraph article in most newspapers and websites.

Interestingly, the major announcements have said something about each of the candidates:

Edwards: Eager and Ready - the first to announce, clearly been chomping at the bit since losing in 2004.
Obama: Fresh and Different - great Web-based announcement and new ideas.
Clinton: Smart and Strategic - full fledged announcement that was clearly meant to counter the Obama swell.
Richardson: Overshadowed and Boring - what else should we have expected from New Mexico?

Frontrunner, out of the gates

A new poll by Washington Post-ABC News shows Clinton to be the early frontrunner with a wide lead over everyone else in the field. Probably not the most surprising news given her stature and personality which clearly overshadow the rest of the relative unknowns. From the Post:

Clinton took 41 percent in a hypothetical primary field against 12 other Democrats, far ahead of Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) at 17 percent, former Sen. John Edwards (N.C) at 11 percent and former Vice President Al Gore at 10 percent. The party's 2004 nominee -- Sen. John Kerry (Mass.) -- received 8 percent support. No other candidate crested three percent.

Another article in the Post shows how her numbers have increased among women:

Clinton begins her historic race viewed favorably by 59 percent of women nationally... She is particularly popular among younger women, 18-34, who see her as a role model and who may not recall the negative publicity and partisan attacks that Clinton weathered as first lady over her health-care proposal and other issues.

This would all be bigger news if she weren't walloping the field. The question becomes: just how fast can she be torn down? Unless she's transformed into the new Teflon Hillary, she's going to suffer major dips in her polling numbers as the other Democrats and the Press start to take their swipes at her.

Bush, Clinton, Bush, Bush, Clinton

This morning, Hillary Clinton announced her bid for President of the United States.

"I have never been afraid to stand up for what I believe in or to face down the Republican machine. After nearly $70 million spent against my campaigns in New York and two landslide wins, I can say I know how Washington Republicans think, how they operate, and how to beat them."

Well, she is going to have to beat some Democrats first, but I like the sentiment.

Next should come Richardson.

Yellow Lines and Dead Armadillos

In an LA Times article that is ostensibly about college freshman attitudes regarding gay marriage, a more telling fact arises: Moderation is dying (and thank god for it!).

The percentage of students identifying themselves as "liberal," 28.4%, is at its highest level since 1975, and those identifying as "conservative," 23.9%, at its highest level in the survey's 40-year history.

However, the majority of 2006's freshman students, 43.3%, consider themselves "middle-of-the-road," the lowest percentage since first measured by the research program in 1970.

I don't want to brush over the importance of the gay marriage issue - this study showed that support for marriage equality was at an all-time high. But while our political elite has been led to believe that the electorate has become more moderate, this study shows that liberalism and conservatism are alive and well.

In the minds of Party vote counters, the squishy middle of the electorate appears to be in increasing with number of "Independent" voters. But who came up with the genius assertion that Independent voters are some kind of undefined middle of the road blob? The fact is that Independent voters in Santa Monica are more lefty and highly Democratic voting than actual registered Democrats in other parts of the state. And the same can be said for the Republican voting habits of Orange County Independents.

Politicians who attempt to cater to a seemingly moderating electorate do so at their own peril. This is one way in which Rove was Right. Tell us something that will excite - not someting watered down in an attempt to not offend!

Edwards up... for now

The Iowa caucuses are a big deal, but for my dollar the Nevada confab will be a much more telling event in the Democratic Primary. This is a bit unfortunate given that Nevada isn't quite as liberal on many issues. It's all about Nuclear Waste and Drinking Water - the don't want the former, and need the latter.

As we get closer to the next election we are going to see a lot of polls, so no need to get out and declare victory just yet. But the Hotline does give some hope to Edwards supporters, and makes you wonder where Hillary is going to get her first win.

John Edwards comes in with what the Hotline calls a "whopping 27%," while on the GOP side, things remain close between ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Sen. John McCain.

(Dems only)
J. Edwards 27%
B. Obama 17
T. Vilsack 16
H. Clinton 16
J. Biden 3

(GOPers only)
R. Giuliani 19%
J. McCain 17
N. Gingrich 13

See it all at: http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2007/01/

Here comes 2008!

This weekend saw a very interesting Democratic Party delegate selections in the 21st Senate District. Dario Frommer was a no-show in his old Assembly District and all of the delegate slots went to Krekorian loyalists.

This means that Frommer won't even be able to count on his old Assembly district for Democratic Party endorsement votes. It is unbelievable that the former Majority Leader of the State Assembly and former staffer to the State Party Chairman Art Torres could lose a Democratic Party endorsement, but that is apparently on the table after his no-show this weekend.

In the nearby 23rd Senate District, Lloyd Levine was working to earn delegate slots in order to block the endorsement of Fran Pavley. While he did well in his own Assembly District, Pavley held her own in her 41st District, and the 39th District was overrun by Alex Padilla troops. With Lloyd's active opposition to Padilla in the 2006 Senate contest, these are unlikely to be his delegates.

2006: Great year for Clean Money?

In an incredibly optimistic rewrite of recent political history, the Califorrnia Progress Report suggests that 2006 was a "year of unprecedented growth for the Clean Money public finacing of campaigns movement in California." That's like saying it was a banner year for the Angelides Family!

The fact is that legislation meant to curb campaign spending and create public financing was killed in Saccramento, then the question was taken to voters and it lost by a 75-25 vote. That's embarassing for a campaign that was running hard, had phone banks every day up to the election, and had great free media coverage.

Another post on the same site is entitled "Prop. 89: We’ve Opened a Door for Reform That Will Never Be Closed." Yeah, that door led directly to getting our butts kicked. Great.

Great Democrat, Wrong District

Last year there was an extrordinary Democratic Candidate for the Assembly who was unfortunately in the wrong district at the wrong time. Jonathan Levey is an attorney in Los Angeles. He was supported by the San Fernando Young Democrats, endorsed by the LA Weekly and the Los Angeles Times, and raised plenty of $$, but he was in a field with three other strong Democratic candidates and ended up finishing somewhere in the dust of Julia Brownley.

Jonathan was unique and let's hope that he can find a district that would be a better match for him (AD 40, the Lloyd Levine seat maybe?). One incredible move was the creation of a book outlining his positions. Lucky for us, it is still online and can be found here:

INTRODUCTION

CHAPTER 1: OPPORTUNITY FOR OUR CHILDREN

CHAPTER 2: CARING FOR OUR FUTURE: THE ENVIRONMENT

CHAPTER 3: NEIGHBORHOODS, TRAFFIC AND QUALITY OF LIFE

CHAPTER 4: HONORING OUR PARENTS AND GRANDPARENTS

CHAPTER 5: HEALTH CARE FOR ALL

CHAPTER 6: PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER: GOVERNMENT PERFORMANCE

The 2008 election is still more than a year away. Plenty of time for Jonathan to gear up for another campaign! If not, maybe Jonathan can work to raise the expectations of voters and activists. We need more smart progressive leaders, less hacks and press release junkies.